SICOM TSR20 Pulls Back at the Start of the Week, but Bullish Momentum Remains Intact; Market Still Poised to Retest 235–240 US Cents/kg
Medan, June 8, 2026 – Global natural rubber prices opened the week on a weaker note following the strong rally seen over the past two weeks. As of 09:35 WIB (Western Indonesia Time) on Monday, the July 2026 SICOM TSR20 contract on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) was trading at 227.1 US cents/kg, down 3.3 US cents from the previous close. Meanwhile, the most actively traded September 2026 RSS3 (RU) contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) declined 260 yuan to 17,645 yuan per tonne.
Despite the correction, TSR20 continues to hold above the key psychological level of 220 US cents/kg, which has served as an important support area over recent weeks.
Early-Week Pullback Driven by Profit-Taking
The latest decline appears to be driven primarily by profit-taking following the market's rapid advance since late May.
Within roughly two weeks, TSR20 climbed from 222.1 US cents/kg on May 26 to 234.5 US cents/kg on June 2. After such a strong rally, many market participants chose to lock in gains, particularly after prices repeatedly failed to sustain levels above 230 US cents/kg during recent sessions.
Weakness was also evident in Shanghai, where the RSS3 contract fell 260 yuan during Monday morning trading, indicating that short-term bearish sentiment has spread across regional Asian rubber markets.
However, there has been no significant change in underlying market fundamentals that would suggest a reversal of the broader bullish trend. Global supply remains relatively tight, as production in several major producing countries has yet to fully recover.
Review of Last Week's Performance
Price action from late May through early June continued to reflect a dominant upward trend.
SICOM TSR20 closing prices:
May 28: 228.3 US cents/kg
May 29: 229.0 US cents/kg
June 2: 234.5 US cents/kg
June 3: 234.4 US cents/kg
June 4: 230.4 US cents/kg
June 5: 230.4 US cents/kg
Although prices corrected during the final two sessions of the previous week, they remained well above late-May levels.
Compared with the beginning of the year, TSR20 has risen from 181.7 US cents/kg on January 2 to 230.4 US cents/kg on June 5, representing a gain of approximately 26.8% year to date. This confirms that the primary trend in 2026 remains firmly bullish.
Technical Analysis: 220 US Cents/kg Remains the Key Support
From a technical perspective, the 220–223 US cents/kg range has become the market's most important support zone.
As long as prices remain above this area, the medium-term bullish structure is expected to remain intact.
Key technical levels:
Support
Major support: 220 US cents/kg
Minor support: 223–226 US cents/kg
Resistance
Initial resistance: 230 US cents/kg
Major resistance: 234.5 US cents/kg
Extended target: 235–240 US cents/kg
With prices still trading around 227.1 US cents/kg, the broader bullish structure remains intact despite the ongoing short-term correction.
Market Fundamentals Continue to Provide Support
Several fundamental factors continue to underpin natural rubber prices:
Global supply has yet to fully recover due to productivity challenges and weather-related disruptions in several major producing countries.
Indonesia's rubber production continues to face structural issues, including aging plantations and a relatively slow pace of replanting.
Global demand from the tire industry remains relatively stable, particularly from the passenger vehicle and electric vehicle sectors.
Market inventories remain at manageable levels, leaving prices sensitive to any potential supply disruptions.
The rainy season in several Southeast Asian producing regions may continue to disrupt tapping activities.
Weekly Outlook: Rebound Potential Remains Intact
Overall, Monday morning's correction appears to represent a healthy pullback within an ongoing uptrend rather than the beginning of a broader market reversal.
If the 220 US cents/kg support level holds, the probability of another rebound remains strong. Both technical indicators and market fundamentals suggest that TSR20 retains the potential to revisit the 235 US cents/kg area and could eventually extend toward 240 US cents/kg should external market sentiment improve.
Accordingly, the market's primary focus this week will be on defending the 220 US cents/kg support level. As long as this key threshold remains intact, the bullish trend that has been developing since the beginning of the year is expected to continue.