Global Rubber Prices Rebound as SICOM Climbs Above 218 US Cents; Market Still Faces Weather Risks and Supply Concerns
Medan, July 15, 2026 – Global natural rubber prices resumed their upward momentum on Tuesday (July 15), supported by a combination of technical buying, stronger crude oil prices, and persistent concerns over supply conditions in major producing countries across Southeast Asia.
The benchmark SICOM-TSR20 August contract on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) was quoted at 218.3 US cents per kilogram as of 10:20 WIB, gaining 0.8 US cents from the previous close. Meanwhile, the actively traded RSS3 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose by 160 yuan to 17,110 yuan per tonne.
The gains extended the previous session's rally, during which the August SICOM contract advanced by approximately 3 US cents per kilogram. Market participants attributed the rise largely to bargain hunting and technical buying after prices experienced a significant correction during late June and early July, creating room for a short-term rebound.
Historically, current SICOM prices remain considerably above the level seen at the beginning of the year, when TSR20 traded near 181.7 US cents/kg in early January 2026. Despite the correction from the June peak above 234 US cents/kg, the medium-term trend continues to indicate relatively elevated price levels.
Technical Rebound or the Beginning of a New Uptrend?
This morning's movement is widely viewed as a continuation of the technical rebound that emerged after the market found solid support around the 208–214 US cents/kg range over recent weeks.
Provided that no major negative demand-side developments emerge, prices are expected to move sideways with a slightly bullish bias during today's trading session.
However, upside potential may remain limited as market participants continue to monitor production developments in Thailand and Indonesia, both of which are currently entering the peak tapping season.
The market is also awaiting clearer signals from China's tire sector, where demand recovery remains incomplete amid slowing manufacturing activity and extreme summer temperatures that tend to reduce transportation activity and replacement tire consumption.
Weather Remains the Dominant Fundamental Driver
Weather conditions across Southeast Asia continue to represent the most important fundamental factor influencing the rubber market.
Since the beginning of the year, several major international meteorological agencies have repeatedly upgraded warnings regarding the development of El Niño conditions, which could reduce rainfall across major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
More than 70 percent of global natural rubber production originates from these four countries, making the market particularly vulnerable to weather-related disruptions. According to ANRPC data, global production in May 2026 declined by approximately 4.7 percent year-on-year, primarily due to the combined impact of wintering periods and adverse weather conditions across several producing regions.
On the other hand, Thailand has recently faced the opposite weather challenge. The Thai Meteorological Department issued warnings of heavy rainfall and flash floods between July 13 and July 15, which could disrupt tapping activities in key production areas. Such interruptions typically have an immediate impact on raw material supply at both farmer and processing-factory levels.
Higher Oil Prices Provide Additional Support
The recent rally in global crude oil prices, which reached their highest levels in four weeks, has also provided support to natural rubber prices.
Higher crude prices generally increase the production cost of synthetic rubber, which is petroleum-based, thereby improving the competitiveness of natural rubber as the primary substitute material used by the tire industry.
Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns regarding global energy supplies, contributing to stronger oil prices and indirectly supporting natural rubber markets.
Global Inventories Continue to Decline
Another supportive factor comes from falling inventories at China's main rubber trading hub.
Natural rubber stocks in Qingdao fell to approximately 669,400 tonnes as of July 12, extending the declining trend observed over recent weeks.
This suggests that while demand has yet to fully recover, consumption continues to outpace incoming supply, preventing inventory accumulation.
Is Typhoon Baiva Affecting Rubber Prices?
Market participants are also monitoring developments surrounding Typhoon Baiva in China.
So far, its direct impact on global rubber prices appears limited, as the storm's trajectory does not directly affect China's main rubber-producing regions in Hainan and Yunnan provinces.
Nevertheless, if the storm disrupts port operations, logistics networks, or manufacturing activities in China's coastal industrial regions, short-term market sentiment could still be affected.
Market Outlook for Today
From a technical perspective, and with the usual disclaimer that technical analysis does not constitute investment advice or guarantee future price movements, the August SICOM contract is expected to find support around 216–217 US cents/kg, while resistance is likely to emerge near 220–222 US cents/kg.
A convincing break above the 220-cent level could open the way for further gains toward the 223–225 US cents/kg range. Conversely, renewed selling pressure may return prices to a consolidation phase around 216–218 US cents/kg.
For now, the most likely scenario for today's session remains sideways trading with a bullish bias, supported by stronger oil prices, firmer raw material prices in Thailand, and ongoing concerns over global supply availability.