Global Rubber Rebounds, TSR20 Returns to 219 — Will It Break Above 224 or Turn Sideways Again?
Medan, August 10, 2026 — The global rubber market enters the new week after SICOM-TSR20 closed at 219.2 cents/kg on Friday, August 7. However, there is no SICOM-TSR20 trading in Singapore today because Singapore is observing a substitute public holiday for National Day, which fell on Sunday, August 9.
As a result, the Singapore rubber market has not provided a new price reference at the start of this week. Market attention is instead focused on developments in the underlying fundamentals, movements in Japanese and Chinese rubber markets, and how TSR20 will open when trading resumes.
The latest TSR20 price shows that selling pressure, which pushed the contract down to 211 cents/kg on August 3, has begun to ease. After the sharp correction at the beginning of August, prices managed to rebound over several sessions.
However, the recovery is not yet enough to confirm a return to a bullish trend. The latest price of 219.2 cents/kg remains below the key resistance area of 224–225 cents/kg.
Weekly Review: TSR20 Rebounded 3.9% from Its Low
SICOM-TSR20 trading last week, August 3–7, 2026, was fairly volatile. The market began the week under heavy pressure after reaching 224.4 cents/kg at the end of July.
On Monday, August 3, TSR20 plunged to 211 cents/kg. This became the week's low and reflected strong selling pressure following the late-July rally.
Conditions changed from Tuesday onward. Prices rebounded to 216.9 cents/kg, then rose to 217.6 on Wednesday, 218.8 on Thursday, and finally closed at 219.2 cents/kg on Friday, August 7.
From the weekly low of 211 cents/kg to Friday's close of 219.2 cents/kg, TSR20 recovered approximately 3.9%.
However, compared with the previous Friday's close of 224.4 cents/kg on July 31, the price at the end of last week was still around 2.3% lower.
Therefore, on a weekly basis, last week cannot yet be described as bullish. It is more accurately characterized as a recovery week following a sharp correction.
An important feature was that prices rose for four consecutive sessions after touching 211 cents/kg. This indicates that buying interest began to emerge when prices entered the lower range.
In other words, the 211–215 cents/kg area began to attract buyers. However, buyers have not yet been strong enough to bring prices back to the previous high.
Fundamentals: Supply Is Tightening, but Demand Has Yet to Fully Recover
On the supply side, several factors are providing support for rubber prices.
China's trade data showed that imports of natural and synthetic rubber, including latex, reached around 580,000 tons in July 2026, down approximately 8.5% from 634,000 tons in July last year.
Cumulative imports from January to July reached approximately 4.515 million tons, down around 4.1% from the same period last year.
The decline in imports is one factor helping to limit downward pressure on rubber prices. However, lower imports do not automatically mean that the market is experiencing a supply shortage.
Entering August, major Southeast Asian producing countries remain in a relatively high-production period. The arrival of new rubber from plantations means that supply remains reasonably available.
This is one reason prices have not yet been able to move sharply higher despite support from inventory and import developments.
Tire Demand Remains the Weak Spot
On the demand side, the recovery remains relatively weak.
Passenger-tire production activity in China declined last week. The operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was around 64.39%, down 1.28 percentage points from the previous week and almost 10 percentage points below the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the operating rate of all-steel tire factories was relatively better at around 62.9%.
However, finished-tire inventories remain relatively high, at around 40 days for all-steel tires and 45.5 days for semi-steel tires.
This indicates that tire manufacturers do not yet have an urgent need to aggressively increase purchases of raw rubber.
Therefore, while supply-side factors are providing support, demand remains a factor limiting the upside.
Heavy-Truck Sales Still Growing, but Momentum Is Slowing
One positive factor comes from China's heavy-truck sector.
Heavy-truck sales in July were estimated at around 92,000 units, up approximately 8.4% from the same month last year.
Cumulative sales from January to July reached approximately 753,000 units, representing growth of around 21% year-on-year.
These figures still indicate strong growth. However, July's growth began to slow compared with the March-June period.
This means the heavy-truck sector continues to support rubber demand, but its momentum is no longer as strong as it was several months ago.
Exchange Stocks Begin to Decline
Another supportive factor comes from rubber inventories at the exchanges.
As of August 7, natural-rubber warehouse receipts stood at around 147,890 tons, down approximately 420 tons week-on-week.
Total exchange stocks stood at around 171,386 tons, also down approximately 1,190 tons from the previous week.
For TSR20, warehouse receipts fell by around 302 tons to approximately 16,632 tons, while total exchange stocks stood at around 17,337 tons.
The decline is not yet large enough to be considered a major fundamental shift. However, inventories are at least not showing a significant build-up.
This is one factor helping prices find support when they fall toward the 211–215 cents/kg area.
Weather and Production Remain Key Factors
As August progresses, rubber production in Southeast Asia remains an important market focus.
This period is generally one of the key production periods for major producing countries. When new supplies increase, prices tend to face pressure if demand does not grow at the same pace.
However, weather conditions can alter that balance.
Heavy rainfall in some producing regions could disrupt tapping and raw-material transportation. Conversely, favorable weather could allow new supplies to reach the market more quickly.
Therefore, weather developments in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other producing countries will remain important factors to watch in the coming weeks.
Current Fundamentals: Balanced
Taking all these factors together, rubber market fundamentals are currently relatively balanced.
On the positive side:
China's rubber imports are declining.
Exchange inventories have started to fall.
Heavy-truck sales are still growing.
Weather risks could limit production.
Oil prices and broader Asian commodity sentiment are providing support.
On the other hand:
August remains a relatively high-production period in Southeast Asia.
Passenger-tire factory operating rates have declined.
Finished-tire inventories remain relatively high.
Heavy-truck growth is beginning to slow.
Rubber demand has yet to recover strongly.
Therefore, there is not yet a sufficiently strong fundamental basis to expect a sustained price surge in the very near term.
At the same time, the combination of these factors could make a deep decline less likely unless there is a major change in global market sentiment.
Before the Next Trading Session: Sideways Remains the Main Scenario
Because SGX is closed on August 10, there is no new SICOM-TSR20 opening price available to assess today's direction. The analysis is therefore better based on the latest price of 219.2 cents/kg and the technical levels established in previous sessions.
If the next trading session manages to hold the 218–219 cents/kg area, there is still room for the rebound to continue toward 222–224 cents/kg.
Conversely, failure to hold this area could send prices back toward 216–217 cents/kg.
Stronger selling pressure would only become more evident if the 211–213 cents/kg support area is broken again.
With fundamentals remaining relatively balanced, the base scenario for the next trading session is still sideways with an upward bias, as long as the 218–219 support area holds.
Technical Analysis: 224–225 Is the Main Test
TSR20's price movement throughout the year shows a rally from 181.7 cents/kg in early January to 234.5 cents/kg in early June.
After reaching that level, the market entered a correction phase.
Prices subsequently fell toward around 208–211 cents/kg in late June and early July before forming another rebound toward 224.4 cents/kg on July 31.
The early-August correction then brought prices back to 211 cents/kg, before they rebounded to 219.2 cents/kg last Friday.
This pattern indicates that the market remains in a broad consolidation phase following the correction from the June peak.
In the short term, 224–225 cents/kg is an important resistance zone.
If this level is broken and sustained, the next technical target could be around 228–230 cents/kg.
Conversely, if 224 fails to break, prices could continue moving within the 216–224 cents/kg range.
Estimated Levels for the Next Trading Session
Main scenario:
Sideways–bullish in the 218–223/224 cents/kg range.
If momentum strengthens:
The market could test 222–224 cents/kg. A strong breakout could open the way toward 228–230 cents/kg.
If prices come under renewed pressure:
Initial support at 218, followed by 216–217 cents/kg.
Stronger support:
Around 211–213 cents/kg.
Disclaimer: This technical outlook is based on historical price patterns and current market conditions. It is not a certainty regarding price direction and is not a trading recommendation. Commodity prices can change rapidly due to global sentiment, oil prices, exchange rates, weather conditions in producing countries, trade policies and changes in market positioning.
Conclusion: The Rebound Has Begun, but 224 Remains the Key
SICOM-TSR20 closed last week at 219.2 cents/kg, after successfully rebounding from its low of 211 cents/kg at the beginning of the week.
The weekly review shows a recovery of around 3.9% from the weekly low, but the price remains around 2.3% below the 224.4 cents/kg closing level on July 31.
This means the rebound has begun, but a trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.
Fundamentals are providing some support against a deeper decline through lower Chinese imports and declining exchange stocks. However, seasonal production in Southeast Asia, relatively weak tire-industry activity and high finished-tire inventories continue to limit the upside.
Since SGX is closed today, the market has not provided a new price signal. Attention will shift to how TSR20 reacts when trading resumes.
218–219 cents/kg is the key short-term support area, while 224–225 cents/kg remains the main resistance.
If 224–225 is successfully broken, the rebound could strengthen toward 228–230 cents/kg. However, if prices once again fail to break through that area, TSR20 is likely to remain in a consolidation range of approximately 216–224 cents/kg.
Therefore, 224–225 cents/kg remains the key level that will determine whether the TSR20 rebound is merely temporary or begins to develop into a new upward trend.