TSR20 Rebound Lagi! Harga Karet Mulai Menguat, Tapi 220–224 Jadi Ujian — Mampukah Menembus?
Medan, August 11, 2026 — Natural rubber prices showed renewed rebound momentum in Tuesday morning trading. After coming under sharp pressure at the beginning of August, SICOM-TSR20 has begun to recover and is once again approaching the 220 US cents per kilogram area.
Year-to-date price movements show that TSR20 reached 224.4 cents/kg on July 31, before falling sharply to 211 cents/kg on August 3. The market then gradually recovered to 216.9 cents, 217.6 cents, 218.8 cents and finally 219.2 cents/kg on August 7. This means the market has recovered most of its early-August losses, although it has yet to return to the 224.4-cent peak.
The morning session on August 11 indicates that the rebound is still attempting to continue. However, the strength of the move has not yet provided a strong signal that the market has entered a new uptrend. The 220-cent area is the first threshold that needs to be overcome before the market has greater room to move toward 224 cents/kg.
Fundamentals: Rain Disrupts Supply, but Demand Is Still Not Strong Enough
On the supply side, weather conditions are providing support for prices. Several major rubber-producing areas in Thailand are still experiencing rainfall that could reduce tapping activity and temporarily limit the flow of raw material into the market.
As of August 10, Thailand's cup-lump price was around 66.50 baht/kg, while latex stood at 74.50 baht/kg. Raw material prices in Yunnan were relatively stable, while prices in Hainan increased.
These conditions provide a basis for the market to rebound. When rainfall disrupts tapping activity, rubber supply does not immediately increase even though industrial demand continues.
However, the main concern remains on the demand side.
China's tire industry has shown a limited improvement. The operating rate of sample semi-steel tire manufacturers stood at around 64.57 percent, up 0.59 percentage point from the previous week. However, this level remains below that of the same period last year. Meanwhile, the operating rate of full-steel tire manufacturers was around 63.64 percent, slightly weaker on a weekly basis.
In other words, tire manufacturers have not yet shown a sufficiently strong increase in production to become a major driver of a sustained rise in rubber prices.
Finished-tire inventories at several manufacturers also remain relatively high. This is encouraging producers to remain cautious about increasing production aggressively.
Qingdao Inventories Provide a Small Positive Signal
One relatively positive development comes from rubber inventories in Qingdao.
As of August 9, total natural rubber inventories in the Qingdao area stood at around 645,000 tonnes, down approximately 9,000 tonnes, or 1.38 percent, from the previous period.
The decline is not yet large enough to represent a major fundamental shift, but it does indicate that the market is not currently facing a worrying surge in inventories.
Overall, the current fundamentals can therefore be described as balanced: short-term supply is being affected by weather, inventories are declining, but demand from the tire industry is still not strong enough.
Iran-US War Could Add Volatility
The ongoing war and tensions between Iran and the United States also deserve attention because their impact on the rubber market is indirect.
Oil prices have returned to their highest levels in more than a week. Brent crude is around US$87–88 per barrel, while WTI is around US$82 per barrel. Higher oil prices are linked to renewed concerns about energy supply disruptions and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
For rubber, higher oil prices have two sides.
On the one hand, expensive crude oil increases the production cost of synthetic rubber. This can make natural rubber relatively more attractive as an alternative raw material for certain industrial applications.
On the other hand, higher oil prices increase transportation and tire production costs. If the situation persists, inflationary pressure could weaken purchasing power and eventually affect automotive and tire demand.
Therefore, the Iran-US conflict is currently better viewed as a factor that could increase rubber-market volatility rather than the main fundamental driver determining the direction of TSR20.
If tensions escalate again and oil prices continue to rise, rubber could receive support through higher synthetic-rubber costs. Conversely, if an agreement is reached and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, some of the risk premium in commodities could disappear.
US Tire Demand Still Shows Signs of Weakness
Another factor that calls for caution in chasing the TSR20 rebound is US tire trade data.
According to QinRex data cited in the market report, US tire imports in the first half of 2026 declined by around 2.5 percent from the same period last year. Imports from China fell by as much as 29 percent, while imports from Thailand declined by around 8 percent.
This indicates that global tire demand has not yet entered a strong growth phase.
Therefore, the current TSR20 increase appears to be driven more by a combination of short-term supply disruptions, market positioning and cost factors, rather than a surge in global demand.
TA: 220–224 Becomes the Key Zone
Based on the price movement throughout the year, the market still appears to be in a rebound phase following a correction, rather than a fully confirmed bullish trend.
After falling from 224.4 to 211 cents/kg, TSR20 has managed to rebuild its position above 216–217 cents/kg. The five-session average is also around 216.7 cents/kg, making this area an emerging short-term support zone.
For today's trading session, the most reasonable scenario from a technical perspective is:
Main scenario: sideways with a bullish bias.
The market may attempt to move back toward:
220 ? 222 ? 224 cents/kg
The 224-cent area represents an important resistance level because it is close to the July 31 peak of 224.4 cents/kg.
If 220 cents can be broken and the price manages to hold above that level, the possibility of testing 222–224 cents/kg will increase. If 224 cents is convincingly broken, the market could then have room to move toward around 226–228 cents/kg.
Conversely, if the price fails to break through 220–222 and selling pressure returns, the market could move back within the 216–220 cents/kg range. A break below 216 would signal that the short-term rebound is losing strength, potentially opening a retest of 213–214 cents/kg.
Outlook for Today
Considering the morning rebound, current fundamentals and the latest price pattern, the most likely scenario for August 11 is sideways-to-bullish, rather than a sharp increase.
Estimated trading range:
Support: 216–217 cents/kg
Next support: 213–214 cents/kg
Resistance: 220–222 cents/kg
Strong resistance: 224 cents/kg
If 224 breaks out: potential move toward 226–228 cents/kg
The most realistic intraday target is around 220–222 cents/kg, with a possible test of 224 cents/kg if buying momentum strengthens.
Disclaimer: The technical projections above are based on available price patterns and market data. They do not represent a certainty about market direction or a trading recommendation. Commodity prices can change rapidly due to trading volume, market positioning, exchange rates, weather, trade policies and geopolitical developments involving Iran and the United States.
Conclusion
The current TSR20 rebound is healthy enough to watch closely, but not yet strong enough to be considered a major trend reversal.
Short-term supply is receiving support from rainfall disruptions, while Qingdao inventories are beginning to decline. On the other hand, tire-industry demand remains relatively weak and US tire imports have also declined.
Therefore, 220 cents/kg is the first gateway, while 224 cents/kg is the real test. Until the market is able to break through 224 cents/kg, it is safer to view the market as a rebound within a sideways phase.
For today's session, the greatest probability remains within the 216–222 cents/kg range, with particular attention when prices approach 224 cents/kg. If 224 is decisively broken, the market narrative could shift from a simple rebound toward the possibility of a further advance.
Developments surrounding Iran and the United States could also make the rubber market more volatile. Oil prices approaching US$88 per barrel indicate that geopolitical risks remain unresolved and could continue to influence sentiment across global commodity markets.