Rubber Prices Close In on 260 Cents: Breakout or Profit-Taking? SICOM Remains Hot During SHFE Holiday
MEDAN, October 5, 2026 — Natural rubber prices continued to show strength at the start of this week’s trading. As of 10:15 a.m. Western Indonesia Time (WIB) on Monday, October 5, the November SICOM-TSR20 contract was trading at 259.9 US cents per kilogram, up 2.1 cents, or about 0.8 percent.
The price is now just 0.1 cent away from the key psychological level of 260 cents/kg. The market’s attention is therefore focused on one question: can rubber break through 260 and extend its rally, or will the level trigger another round of profit-taking after such a prolonged advance?
The current situation is particularly interesting because China’s rubber futures market remains closed for the holiday period. SHFE/INE is closed from October 1 through October 7, 2026, for China’s National Day/Golden Week holiday and is scheduled to reopen on October 8. As a result, SICOM is moving during this period without fresh price discovery from the Chinese futures market.
SICOM Takes Center Stage During SHFE Holiday
The absence of SHFE trading makes SICOM’s movements increasingly important for participants in the Asian rubber market.
During the Chinese holiday, the market is receiving no fresh pricing signals from one of the world’s most influential rubber futures markets. As a result, SICOM’s advance toward 260 cents/kg is being driven more directly by regional supply conditions, weather developments, market sentiment and traders’ positioning elsewhere in Asia.
There is, however, another side to this situation.
When SHFE reopens on October 8, the Chinese market may have to adjust to developments in rubber prices that occurred during the holiday period. If SICOM remains elevated or manages to break through the 260–265 cents/kg area, Chinese futures could respond to those gains when trading resumes.
Conversely, if SICOM undergoes a significant correction before October 8, SHFE could also reopen with a downward adjustment.
For this reason, the reopening of SHFE on October 8 will be one of the key events for the rubber market this week.
Prices Have Risen Nearly 4 Percent in a Week
The strength of the market becomes clearer when current prices are compared with those of roughly one week ago.
SICOM-TSR20 stood at around 250 cents/kg on September 29. It then surged to 258.7 cents on September 30, corrected to 255.4 cents on October 1, and recovered to 257.8 cents on October 2.
Today, the price has risen again to 259.9 cents.
Compared with September 29, SICOM has therefore gained approximately 9.9 cents, or nearly 4 percent.
Compared with the September 28 level of 252.4 cents, the increase is around 3 percent.
This pattern suggests that the correction seen on October 1 did not change the broader trend. Prices did fall following the sharp September 30 rally, but selling pressure was quickly absorbed and the market resumed its upward move.
In other words, profit-taking has already emerged, but so far it has not been strong enough to reverse the main trend.
From Around 180 Cents to Nearly 260 Cents
The magnitude of the rally becomes even more striking when viewed from the beginning of the year.
In early January 2026, SICOM-TSR20 was still trading at around 181–183 cents/kg. Prices then gradually climbed through 200 cents, 220 cents and 240 cents.
The rally accelerated in September. Prices reached 249.9 cents on September 9 before correcting to as low as 236 cents in mid-September.
From September 22, however, the market regained momentum. Prices rose from 241.7 cents to 249.5 cents on September 23, 254 cents on September 24 and 256.2 cents on September 25.
Following a brief correction on September 28–29, the market surged again to 258.7 cents on September 30.
This means the move toward 260 has not occurred over just one or two trading sessions. Rubber has been in a long-term upward trend since the beginning of the year, interrupted by several corrections that were subsequently met with renewed buying.
That is what makes the current market both attractive and increasingly risky.
Why Are Rubber Prices Still So Strong?
The primary factor supporting prices is concern over supply.
The latest industry data indicate relatively limited growth in global natural rubber production in 2026, while global demand is still expected to increase. This is creating a tighter market balance than would be the case if supply were expanding rapidly.
The latest ANRPC data indicate that production among member countries continues to face constraints, while global consumption remains supportive. This makes the market increasingly sensitive to disruptions in major producing countries.
Thailand is one of the main areas of concern because it is the world’s largest natural rubber producer.
Heavy rainfall in producing regions can disrupt tapping and raw material collection. The issue is not necessarily that rain physically damages rubber trees. Rather, farmers are often unable to tap normally during persistent or heavy rainfall.
If such conditions persist, the volume of raw material reaching processing plants can decline.
Weather conditions in Thailand therefore remain an important factor in early October, with heavy rainfall still possible in several areas.
The market is consequently pricing in the possibility that raw material supply could remain constrained while demand continues.
Weather Is a Major Driver, but Not the Only One
The current rally should not be attributed to a single factor.
Weather is undoubtedly an important catalyst, but traders are also watching global production, inventories, exports from producing countries and demand from the tire industry.
Rubber inventories at several major trading hubs have also drawn attention in recent months. When inventories are relatively tight, any new disruption to production can have a disproportionately large impact on prices.
This helps explain why weather developments in Thailand are now receiving such a strong market response.
Energy prices are another factor. Relatively high crude oil prices can increase the cost of producing synthetic rubber. This indirectly supports natural rubber prices because synthetic rubber is an alternative raw material used by the industry.
However, energy costs should be viewed as a supporting factor rather than the sole reason for SICOM’s advance toward 260 cents.
Demand Remains Supportive, but There Are Limits
On the demand side, the tire industry remains the principal source of consumption.
Growth in vehicle ownership, transportation activity and replacement-tire demand continues to support rubber consumption. China, India and other Asian economies remain important contributors to global natural rubber demand.
There is, however, a difference between healthy demand and booming demand.
The current price rally appears to reflect a significant premium for supply risk. The rise in prices should therefore not automatically be interpreted as evidence of an explosive increase in consumption.
In fact, if raw material prices continue rising too rapidly, tire manufacturers will face increasing cost pressure.
Some tire producers have already adjusted product prices in response to higher raw material costs. Larger manufacturers may be better positioned to manage these pressures through product price increases, efficiency measures, long-term supply contracts and hedging strategies.
For manufacturers operating with narrower margins, however, higher rubber prices can become a much heavier burden.
Is the Market Entering Another Profit-Taking Phase?
The risk is increasing.
The closer prices move toward 260 cents/kg, the greater the likelihood that some market participants will decide to lock in profits.
This is particularly relevant given the long rally from around 180 cents at the beginning of the year to almost 260 cents today.
Under such conditions, the market tends to become more sensitive to negative news. Developments that might previously have caused only a minor pullback can trigger heavier selling once speculative positions have accumulated substantial gains.
However, as long as corrections continue to attract fresh buying and prices hold above key support levels, profit-taking should not automatically be interpreted as a trend reversal.
The October 1 movement provides a good example. SICOM fell from 258.7 cents to 255.4 cents, but subsequently recovered to 257.8 cents on October 2 and reached 259.9 cents this morning.
This indicates that buyers remain active on price dips.
260 Cents Becomes the Key Battleground
From a psychological perspective, 260 cents/kg is now a crucial level.
If the market merely touches 260 before falling back, traders may view it as resistance that has yet to be convincingly broken.
However, if prices break above 260 and remain there, market perceptions could change.
Participants who have been waiting for a correction may instead return to the market once resistance has been broken. Under such circumstances, upward momentum could accelerate.
From a technical perspective, the next area to watch above 260 is approximately 262–265 cents/kg.
Conversely, if prices fail to maintain momentum, 257–258 cents/kg becomes the first important support zone.
If selling intensifies and the market falls below 255 cents, a deeper correction toward approximately 252–253 cents/kg could become possible.
Technical Outlook for Today
Based on the price action observed through 10:15 a.m. WIB, the SICOM-TSR20 bias remains bullish.
The first scenario would see prices break through 260 cents and remain above that level. If that happens, the market could have room to advance toward 262–265 cents/kg.
The second scenario would involve repeated attempts to break 260 without a sustained move above it. In that case, SICOM could consolidate within the 257–260 cents/kg range.
The third scenario involves heavier profit-taking. If the market loses 257 cents and selling pressure intensifies, prices could retest the 255-cent area.
For today’s trading, 260 cents is therefore the key trigger. A sustained move above it could strengthen bullish momentum, while repeated failures to break the level would increase the likelihood of consolidation or a correction.
Disclaimer: This technical outlook is based on price patterns and support-resistance analysis and should not be regarded as a certainty or investment recommendation. Commodity prices can change rapidly due to weather, supply, demand, currency movements, speculative positioning and broader global market developments.
Another Key Factor: SHFE Reopens on October 8
Market participants should not focus solely on today’s SICOM trading.
With SHFE/INE closed through October 7, China’s rubber futures market will not generate fresh prices until trading resumes on October 8.
That gives SICOM several trading sessions in which to establish a new price range without an immediate response from SHFE.
If SICOM breaks through 260 and remains strong during this period, the reopening of SHFE could become an additional catalyst.
Conversely, if SICOM fails to sustain the rally and undergoes a correction before October 8, the Chinese market could react differently when trading resumes.
For that reason, October 8 is a date that rubber industry participants should watch closely.
Conclusion: 260 Is Within Reach, but Holding Above It Is the Real Test
The November SICOM-TSR20 contract at 259.9 cents/kg as of 10:15 a.m. WIB indicates that bullish momentum remains intact.
Over roughly one week, prices have gained almost 4 percent from around 250 cents/kg. More broadly, SICOM has risen substantially from the 180-cent range seen at the beginning of 2026.
The rally continues to receive fundamental support from supply concerns, weather disruptions in producing regions, limited growth in global production and resilient demand.
However, the market is also trading at substantially higher levels than earlier this year. As a result, the risk of profit-taking is increasing, particularly if prices fail to establish themselves above 260 cents/kg.
For now, the key technical areas are:
260 cents — key resistance and breakout trigger
262–265 cents — upside target zone following a confirmed breakout
257–258 cents — initial support
255 cents — next support
252–253 cents — deeper correction zone
Under current conditions, a break above 260 cents appears increasingly possible, but simply touching or briefly exceeding 260 would not necessarily signal another major leg higher. The market would need to demonstrate that it can hold above that level.
Another important consideration is SHFE’s closure through October 7 and its reopening on October 8. The Chinese market’s response upon returning from the holiday could provide the next major test for the ongoing rubber rally.
For now, as long as SICOM remains above the 255–257 cents/kg area, the broader trend remains more bullish than bearish.